Trade in Spain

COUNTRY

Mosjeed of Spain

 

Formal Name: Spanish State.
Short Form: Spain.
Term for Citizens: Spaniard(s).
Capital: Madrid.

GEOGRAPHY

Spain in Map

 

Size: Peninsular Spain covers 492,503 square kilometers. Spanish territory also encompasses the Balearic Islands (Spanish, Islas Baleares) in the Mediterranean Sea and the Canary Islands (Spanish, Canarias) in the Atlantic Ocean, as well as the city enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla in North Africa.
Topography: Peninsular landmass predominantly a vast highland plateau--the Meseta Central--surrounded and dissected by mountain ranges. Major lowland areas include narrow coastal plains, Andalusian Plain in southwest, and Ebro Basin in northeast. Islands, especially Canary Islands, mountainous.
Climate: Predominantly continental climate with hot, dry summers and rather harsh, cold winters. Wide diurnal and seasonal variations in temperature and low, irregular rainfall. Maritime climate prevails in northern part of country, characterized by relatively mild winters, warm but not hot summers, and generally abundant rainfall spread throughout year. Slight diurnal and seasonal variations in temperature. Mediterranean climate experienced from Andalusian Plain along south and east coasts, characterized by irregular, inadequate rainfall, mostly in autumn and winter.

ECONOMY

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): US$340.1 billion in 1988 (US$8,702 per capita). Economy stagnant during late 1970s and first half of the 1980s, but real gross domestic product growth averaged 3.3 percent in 1986 and 5.5 percent in 1987, roughly double the West European rate.

Innovative ship of Spain for business

Agriculture: Made up about 5 percent of GDP in 1988 and employed about 15 percent of population. Very important producer of citrus fruits, olive oil, vegetables, and wine. Agricultural products made up more than 15 percent of country's exports. Productive and modern farming along southern and eastern coasts able to meet foreign competition. Small antiquated farms of northwestern region threatened by Spain's membership in European Community.
Industry: Made up about 30 percent of GDP and employed about one-third of work force in late 1980s. Consisted of unprofitable heavy industry segment, mainly government-owned, and profitable chemical and manufacturing components that accounted for most of Spain's exports.
Services: Accounted for about half of GDP in 1988. Tourism vital to the economy, and it alone made up about a tenth of GDP. In 1987 more than 50 million foreign tourists visited Spain.
Imports: US$49.1 billion in 1987. Because of a surging economy, approximately one-fourth of this amount consisted of capital goods and about one-fifth of consumer goods. Fuels made up approximately one-sixth.
Exports: US$34.2 billion in 1987. Raw materials, chemicals, and unfinished goods made up about one-third of this amount, as did non-food consumer goods, most notably cars and trucks. Agricultural products and wine supplied about one-sixth of total exports.
Major Trade Partners: In 1987 63.8 percent of Spain's exports went to the EC, which it supplied Spain with 54.6 of its imports. France was single biggest buyer of Spanish exports, taking 18.9 percent in 1987. Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany) most important exporter to Spain, supplying 16.1 percent that year. United States accounted, respectively, for 8.3 and 8.1 of Spain's imports and exports.
Balance of Payments: Spain without a positive merchandise balance since 1960. However, large earnings from tourism and remittances from Spaniards working abroad guaranteed a positive current account balance up through 1987.
General Economic Conditions: Strong growth since mid-1980s and controlled inflation made Spain's economy one of Western Europe's healthiest. Full membership in EC posed a threat for weaker sectors of the economy, both industrial and agricultural. Spain had long had Western Europe's highest unemployment rate, more than 20 percent.
Exchange Rate: In March 1988, 113.49 pesetas (see Glossary) to US$1.
Fiscal year: Calendar year.

FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS

Spain has had a long legacy of tariff protectionism and economic isolationism, and until the 1960s it remained outside the West European and international economic mainstreams. Spain's effort in the late 1980s to accelerate its integration into the EC customs and economic structures resulted in a drastic accommodation to international and West European trading standards.

Major export and import field

When Spain embarked on a period of economic modernization in the 1960s, its foreign trade, as a percentage of overall economic activity, was below the average for other major West European countries. Exports and imports amounted to about 16.5 percent of the Spanish GDP in 1960. During the 1960s, Spain's foreign trade increased at an annual rate of about 15 percent; in the 1970s, it grew at an even higher rate. After the oil price increases of the 1970s slowed the world economy, Spanish trade expanded less rapidly. By 1984, after a period of sluggish growth, foreign trade made up about 25 percent of the country's GDP. According to the Economist, in 1987 Spanish imports and exports, respectively, accounted for 16.8 and 11.7 percent of the nation's GDP. These figures indicated an increasing linkage with the world economy, but even in the 1980s foreign trade played a smaller role in Spain's economy than it did in most other European countries.
Spain has not had a positive trade balance since 1960, when exports of US$725 million exceeded imports by US$4 million. In 1961 imports were about one-third larger than exports--a quantitative relationship that, for the most part, has held steady ever since then, despite enormous increases in Spanish exports. In the mid-1980s, Spain's trade deficits ranged from just over US$4 billion in 1984 and in 1985 to US$13 billion in 1987, when merchandise imports amounted to US$49.1 billion, and exports, to US$34.2 billion. A booming economy with strong domestic demand was responsible for a surge of imports in 1987-- an increase of 25 percent, compared to 1986.
Spain's chronic trade deficits were often offset by large earnings from the tourist industry and by remittances from Spaniards working abroad. The revenue from these two sources often allowed invisible receipts to exceed the trade deficit, the result being a surplus in the nation's current account balance. In 1983 Spain's current account balance registered a deficit of US$2.7 billion, but this was followed by surpluses during the next four years. In 1985 the surplus amounted to US$2.8 billion, and in 1986 it was US$4.2 billion. The surplus for 1987 was only US$184 million but, as capital goods made up much of that year's imports, economists were not alarmed.
Although famous for its production of citrus fruits, olives, and wine, about three-quarters of Spain's exports consisted of manufactured products in the mid-1980s. In 1986 and in 1987, manufactured goods made up 74.4 and 72.4 percent of the country's exports, respectively, while foodstuffs accounted for 16.1 and 17.6 percent, respectively. In these two years, raw materials made up about 4 percent of Spain's exports, and fuel products, about 6 percent. Merchandise imports generally exceeded merchandise exports by about one-third. In the 1980s, manufactured goods constituted about two-thirds of all imports, fuels as much as one-fifth, and other raw materials and foods about one-tenth each.

Trading Partners

Trading sector of Spain

 

Ever since steps were taken in the 1960s to liberalize Spain's economy, its trade with West European countries had steadily expanded. In 1973 EC countries accounted for 47.8 percent of Spain's exports, and they provided 37 percent of its imports. In the early 1980s, this ratio had not changed significantly; in 1982 the respective figures were 48.6 and 31.8 percent. After Spain's accession to the EC, however, the balance shifted radically; in 1987, some 63.8 percent of Spain's exports went to the EC, while the EC supplied Spain with 54.6 percent of its imports. In 1987 France was Spain's most important trading customer, taking 18.9 percent of its merchandise exports; West Germany was the largest source of imports, supplying 16.1 percent of the total. The United States, which was Spain's single most important trading partner in the 1970s, accounted for just over 8 percent of both imports and exports in 1987. Increased trade with the EC caused Spain's economic interaction with most of the rest of the world to decline on a relative basis. This decline was most marked with regard to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which supplied Spain with 26.8 percent of its imports and received 5.3 percent of its exports in 1982, compared with 9.5 and 6.5 percent in 1987.

Foreign Investment

Since the late 1950s, foreign investment has played an increasingly crucial role in Spain's economic modernization. One of the first and most significant steps included in the Stabilization Plan of 1959 was granting foreigners permission to buy Spanish securities. In 1963 this measure was supplemented by allowing foreigners the right to secure majority interest in Spanish companies, except those engaged in fields deemed to have strategic importance. As a result of these actions, there was a large influx of foreign capital into Spain.

Statistic

Spain was attractive to foreign investors not merely because it offered opportunities for participating in a rapidly expanding domestic market, but also because it served as a base for further export and trade with EC countries. This was a leading factor in Ford Motor Company's 1974 decision to build an assembly plant near Valencia, and in General Motors' entry into the Spanish market. Japanese companies also intensified their investments and presence in Spain with similar goals in mind. Low-cost labor was another attraction for foreign investors, though not to the same extent as in the 1960s and the 1970s.
In compliance with the EC accession agreement, rules governing foreign investment in Spain were adapted to EC standards in 1986. The new measures streamlined administrative procedures and reduced the number of sectors in which foreign ownership was restricted. The requirement for prior authorization of investments was replaced by one calling merely for prior notification. Notification had to be given when the investment was for more than 50 percent of a Spanish enterprise, when it constituted a re-investment by foreigners, or when its goal was the establishment of branches of foreign companies on Spanish soil.
The influx of foreign investment was extremely large during the 1980s, almost tripling between 1982 and 1987. Some of it took the form of speculative investment, attracted by high Spanish interest rates. More than half of all new foreign investments in Spain represented an expansion of previously existing investments; nearly one-third were in the chemical industry and in the nonfuel mineral processing sector. EC countries became the most important source of investment. The United States, nonetheless, still accounted for about 20 percent of the cumulative foreign investment total. It was expected that, if negotiations being conducted in 1988 for a United States-Spain treaty to avoid double taxation were successful, United States investment might increase.
Spanish direct investment abroad, for which regulatory restrictions were liberalized in 1986, doubled to 101 billion pesetas in 1987. EC countries accounted for 64 percent of the total, with the Netherlands, West Germany, and Portugal being the largest recipients. Investments in the United States fell to 8 percent of the total. Spanish investments in Latin America, especially in Mexico and in Argentina, declined sharply because of heavy debt burdens in that region. By the late 1980s, analysts estimated that Latin America accounted for only 4 percent of Spain's foreign investments.

Spain and the European Community

The year 1992 promised to be one of the most momentous for Spain in the twentieth century. The Summer Games of the XXVth Olympiad were to be held in Barcelona; the five hundredth anniversary of the discovery of the New World was to be celebrated in Seville, with an ambitious international exposition known as Expo 92; and Madrid had been designated as Europe's cultural capital for that year. Moreover, 1992 would mark the culmination of a forced march to modernize the country's economic, social, and financial institutions, because Spain would be fully exposed to the bracing winds of unfettered economic competition from the members of the EC. By the end of 1992, the EC's plan to eliminate barriers to trade, employment, and the flow of capital across the twelve member states' borders was to take effect.
Spain's long adherence to protectionism had been a major factor in its technological and economic backwardness. The Socialist government's commitment to economic modernization and to Spain's integration into the European economic mainstream thus represented a historic landmark. The end of authoritarian rule in 1975 led Spain to embrace a system of political democracy, but changes in the economic sphere proved more difficult. In the 1980s, true economic modernization was only beginning, as the Gonzalez government cast Spain's national goals in terms of increasing its competitiveness, both within Europe and around the world.
The Spanish economy had long functioned on a two-tiered basis. One part--including most notably the automobile manufacturing and chemical industries--was technologically advanced. An even larger part was accustomed to operating inefficiently, protected from outside competition and highly fragmented into a host of small and medium-sized enterprises that accounted for as much as 90 percent of Spain's commerce and industry. It was in this second economic area that the brunt of accelerated change was being felt in the second half of the 1980s, as many small, inefficient concerns faced the effects of free market competition.
Spain had been trying to join, or to align itself with, the EC since 1962. The barriers to Spanish membership were primarily political, and they reflected varying degrees of European hostility to the Franco government rather than fear of economic competition. Among the members of the EC, only Italy and France, with similar agricultural export commodities, had substantial economic motives for opposing Spain's entry into the EC.
After long negotiations, which began in 1962, Spain and the EC signed a preferential trade agreement in June 1970. The agreement called for mutual tariff reductions, ranging from 25 to 60 percent, to be applied gradually over a six-year period. Quantitative restrictions for a number of items were eased under a special quota system.

At the end of the Franco era, little attention was given to Spain's urgent economic problems. Spaniards and their postFrancoist governments tended to regard membership in the EC as a symbolic political act that obtained recognition for Spain's return to democracy, rather than as a portentous economic policy decision irretrievably linking Spain's economic future with that of Europe. The result was that, although Spain had applied for membership nearly a quarter of a century earlier, little national debate took place prior to the signing of the 1985 accession agreement, which was concluded only after arduous negotiations.
The accession agreement called for gradual integration to be carried out over a seven-year period, beginning on January 1, 1986. This adjustment transition involved a number of significant features. Customs duties were to be phased out as of March 1, 1988, and industrial tariffs on EC goods were to be phased out on a reciprocal basis until January 1, 1993. Additional import levies, most notably Spain's tax rebate on exports, were to disappear upon its entry into the EC. With some exceptions, import quotas were to be removed immediately. Quotas on color television sets and tractors were to be eliminated by the end of 1988, and those for chemicals and textiles, by the close of 1989.
In principle, EC-based companies were free to invest in Spain. National assistance programs for industrial projects were subject to strict EC regulations, but special allowances were made for the steel industry, and Spain was allowed to keep its 60 percent local content rule for automobile manufacturing until the end of 1989. Spain became subject to EC antitrust rules immediately, however.
Spain was obliged to adhere to EC product and consumer protection standards at once. Like other EC members, Spain was required to levy a value-added tax, which was the EC's principal source of revenue. Spanish workers were to be able to circulate freely and seek employment in the EC by 1993.
Phased alignment with the EC's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was to be completed only in 1996. The Spanish widely regarded this as a discriminatory action taken by EC countries to prevent imports of Spanish tomatoes, olive oil, and wines until as late a date as possible. Spain's fishing industry, the largest in Western Europe, received the right to fish in most EC waters, but its catch was sharply restricted until 1995.
Despite a favorable attitude toward the establishment of an eventual EC-wide monetary union in the late 1980s, the government was reluctant to commit the peseta to stabilization within the European Monetary System (EMS) because of its over-valued exchange rate. In mid-1988 the Bank of Spain took what was regarded as a symbolic step toward full membership in the EMS by formally accepting the 1979 Basel agreement. By the terms of the agreement, EC central banks made 20 percent of their gold and foreign currency reserves available to the European Monetary Cooperation Fund, against the equivalent in European Currency Units. The subject of the peseta's inclusion in the ECUs, in all likelihood a prerequisite of Spain's full participation in the EMS's exchange-rate system, was to be taken up in September 1989, when the composition of the next ECU would be determined.
The Spanish government sought special treatment for the peseta, the exchange rate of which was considered inflated. Such an arrangement would permit relatively wide margins of fluctuation similar to those enjoyed by the Italian lira. The International Monetary Fund urged Spain's early membership in the EMS, and the pressure to reach a decision on this EMS question was bound to increase when Spain assumed the EC presidency during the first half of 1989.
In the late 1980s, some of the more painful aspects of Spain's integration into the EC were cushioned by the country's expansionary economic boom, the continuing fall in oil prices, a sharp reduction in the exchange value of the United States dollar, and the massive inflow of foreign investment, as numerous foreign multinational companies endeavored to participate in Spain's expanding consumer market. Observers expected that Spain's industrial enterprises, especially the more inefficient and backward ones, would be absorbed by more modern domestic and foreign entrepreneurs or would cease operations. Over the long term, however, the Spanish economy was expected to resemble that of its more advanced EC counterparts much more closely by the year 2000 than it had in the past.

* * *

Although there is a growing literature in Spanish and in English on the Spanish economy during the Franco regime (1939- 75), there is little available in English on the post-Franco period, with the notable exception of Ramon Tamames's classic and encyclopedic The Spanish Economy. Among the more useful books on the Franco period, in English, are Joseph Harrison's The Spanish Economy in the Twentieth Century and Stanley Payne's The Franco Regime, 1936-1975. For information and analysis of industrial, financial, and economic developments in more recent years, readers should consult the annual country surveys of the OECD and the quarterly Country Report: Spain and the Country Profile: Spain, both published by the Economist Intelligence Unit. The annual reports of the Bank of Spain also are particularly useful. Current statistical data can be found in the Anuario Estadistica, a yearbook issued by the Spanish government's statistics bureau, the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica. For up-to-date information on government and private-sector economic activities, London's Financial Times and the Economist provide some of the most comprehensive coverage and also publish survey supplements on various aspects of Spanish economic and financial activities.

Trade in Kuwait

COUNTRY

Fatma Mosjeed of Kuwait

 

Formal Name: State of Kuwait.
Short Form: Kuwait.
Term for Citizens: Kuwaiti(s); adjectival form, Kuwaiti.
Capital: Kuwait (city of Kuwait frequently used to distinguish it from country).
Date of Independence: June 19, 1961.

GEOGRAPHY 

Size: About 17,818 square kilometers.
Topography: Almost entirely flat desert.
Climate: Hot, dry, desert climate; sandstorms in June and July; some rain, mainly in spring.
NOTE--The Country Profile contains updated information as available.
Boundaries: Mostly defined; United Nations post-Persian Gulf War 1992 boundary settlement accepted by Kuwait but rejected by Iraq.

Kuwait in map

ECONOMY

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): In 1990 United Nations Development Programme estimated US$15,984 per capita GDP.
Oil Industry: Provided 41 percent of GDP and 87 percent of government revenues in 1989, 58 percent of government revenues in 1990, and 11 percent of government revenues in 1991, showing effects of Persian Gulf War. Crude oil production in 1992 (after oil well restoration during year) about 41 million barrels, compared with about 387 million barrels in 1985.
Industry: About 14 percent of GDP in 1989. Largest industries petrochemicals and building materials.
Agriculture: Little farming--mostly vegetables and fruits. Most food imported. Some fishing.
Exports: US$11.5 billion in 1989; mostly crude oil and refined products. Asia and Western Europe main markets.
Imports: US$6.3 billion in 1989--largely such finished products as appliances and vehicles from industrialized nations, particularly Japan, United States, and Western Europe.
Currency and Exchange Rate: Kuwaiti dinar. On March 1, 1994, exchange rate US$1 = KD3.55.
Fiscal Year: July 1 to June 30.

Statistic for Kuwait economy

Foreign Investment

From the very beginning, government officials were keenly aware that oil was a depletable asset, that the country had few other resources, and that preparations had to be made for the day when there would be no more oil. As soon as the government began to receive oil revenues, officials spent less than the treasury received, leaving a surplus in the state's general reserve to be invested. Because of limited domestic investment opportunities, most investments were made abroad. World Bank economists estimate that about 25 percent of revenues were placed in foreign assets during the 1950s, although the Kuwaiti government's published data have always been vague about reserves as well as about some other economic variables.
In the 1950s and 1960s, Kuwait began investing overseas in property and businesses in Britain. In 1952 Kuwait established an office in London, staffed with experienced British investment counselors who guided the government's placement of funds. In the same year, Kuwait created investment relations with a large New York bank. Because of the vastly expanded oil revenues of the 1970s, Kuwait's overseas investment program grew tremendously. In 1976 the government established the Reserve Fund for Future Generations, into which it placed an initial US$7 billion. It resolved to invest 10 percent of its revenues annually in the reserve fund. Money from the fund, along with other government revenues, was invested in overseas property and industry. In the 1970s, most of these funds were invested in the United States and in Western Europe: in German firms (such as Hoechst and DaimlerBenz , in each of which Kuwait owned 25 percent), in property, and in most of the United States Fortune Five Hundred firms. In the 1980s, Kuwait began diversifying its overseas investments, placing more investments in Japanese firms. By the late 1980s, Kuwait was earning more from these overseas investments than it was from the direct sale of oil: in 1987 foreign investments generated US$6.3 billion, oil US$5.4 billion. The Financial Times of London estimated Kuwait's overseas investments in early 1990 at more than US$100 billion, most of it in the Reserve Fund for Future Generations.

Relation map of Kuwait

The Iraqi invasion proved the importance of these investment revenues. With oil revenues suspended, the government and population in exile relied exclusively on investment revenues, including sales of investments for sustenance, for their share of ongoing coalition expenses and for postwar reconstruction and repair of the vital oil industry.

Foreign Aid and Trade

Foreign trade has always dominated Kuwait's economy. Before the discovery of oil, merchants developed large transshipment and reexport businesses that, along with the sale of pearls to foreign dealers, yielded a substantial part of the population's income. The discovery of large quantities of oil provided a new and increasingly important export because Kuwait needed only small amounts of oil products domestically. Nonetheless, even after the discovery of oil, Kuwait's merchants continued to develop transshipment and reexport businesses with neighboring countries. During the Iran-Iraq War, goods for Iraq passed through Kuwaiti ports. Oil, however, overwhelmingly dominated Kuwait's exports.
Kuwait's significant foreign-exchange earnings from oil exports and investment income largely removed any constraints on imports in the pre-invasion period. Almost any commodity could be imported, and most import duties were modest. Imports for Kuwait's high-income economy were mainly finished products because of the small domestic manufacturing sector. These imports came predominantly from Asian countries, followed by those from European countries. Imports of all kinds came primarily from Japan and the United States. After the Persian Gulf War, imports from the United States increased dramatically. Huge oil revenues, paid in foreign currencies, freed Kuwait for the most part from balance of payments worries. The government accumulated surplus funds that were invested abroad. A large part of these reserve investments abroad, however, were cashed in during the Iraqi occupation and the liberation period that followed in order to pay the expenses of Kuwait and the allied coalition.

Statistic

Historically, Kuwait also invested part of its revenues in foreign aid, primarily to Arab states. This foreign aid increased substantially as oil revenues rose in the 1970s. It took many forms, such as loans, joint financing, equity participation, and direct grants, particularly in support of Arab causes. In the 1960s, the government began placing funds in the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development (KFAED), established in 1961. The best known of Kuwait's investment organizations and one that was used as a model by other oil exporters, KFAED functioned as both an investment and an aid agency, providing loans for specific projects, often on concessionary terms. KFAED's charter was changed in 1974, when capitalization was increased to KD1 billion, and the fund began expanding its provision of funds to developing countries worldwide. Most KFAED aid went to development projects, especially in agriculture, to provide basic services such as electricity, water, and transportation and to develop human resources through education and health care. A large amount of aid went directly from the government to other states. In per capita terms, Kuwait's aid program was one of the most generous in the world. In the early 1980s, when oil prices were high, nearly 4 percent of Kuwait's gross national product went to the aid program. But in the late 1980s, the levels of aid declined along with declining revenues. After the Iran-Iraq War started, in 1980, Kuwait increasingly directed its aid toward Iraq. During the 1980s, Kuwait lent Iraq an estimated US$13 billion. Kuwait's foreign aid slowed considerably after the Iraqi invasion in August 1990 and is expected to remain limited as Kuwait deals with the costs of reconstruction.

Kuwait -- FOREIGN RELATIONS

As the Iraqi invasion demonstrated, Kuwait's large oil revenues and inherently small defense capabilities gave it tremendous vulnerability. Historically, until the Iraqi invasion, Kuwaiti leaders had always dealt with that vulnerability through diplomacy, trying to find allies that would protect them while maintaining as much independence as possible from those allies by playing them off against each other. Historically, the most important ally was Britain. Kuwait's relationship with Britain came about at the bidding of the early Kuwaiti leader Shaykh Mubarak in an effort to deter a still more troublesome actor, the Ottoman Empire. As one consequence of the 1899 treaty, which gave Kuwait a better status than was the case in British treaties with other possessions, the British presence remained somewhat distant, and British officials meddled less frequently in local politics.

GDP of Kuwait

The relationship with Britain continued beyond independence on June 19, 1961, and the new agreement between independent Kuwait and Britain promised continued British protection as necessary. That protection proved necessary when Iraq, six days after Kuwait's independence, declared Kuwait a part of Iraq and sent troops toward the amirate in support of that claim. Because Kuwait's army was too small to defend the state, British troops arrived, followed soon after by forces from the League of Arab States (Arab League), in the face of which Iraqi forces withdrew.
As Britain increasingly withdrew from the gulf in the 1970s and 1980s, Kuwait was forced to look for other sources of support. Although Kuwaiti leaders tried to maintain a degree of neutrality between the superpowers--Kuwait had an early and sustained economic, military, and diplomatic relationship with the Soviet Union--in the end it was obliged to turn to the United States for support. The Iran-Iraq War was the decisive factor in consolidating closer ties with the United States. Although at the outset of the war Kuwait was an outspoken critic of United States military presence in the gulf, during the war this position changed. When Kuwaiti ships became the target of Iranian attacks, Kuwait's security situation deteriorated, and Kuwait approached the Soviet Union and the United States with requests to reflag and thus protect its beleaguered tankers. As soon as the Soviet Union responded positively to the request, the United States followed. The ground was thus laid for subsequent United States support.

Economic Reconstruction

Despite the devastation of the Kuwaiti economy during the invasion and occupation, recovery has proceeded with surprising speed. This was partly because some damage, particularly of the infrastructure, was not as serious as first feared and partly because the government, anxious to restore the population's weakened confidence in its ability to administer, has given reconstruction and recovery of basic services a high priority.
The oil industry, which was badly damaged, has been a top priority because it is the source of revenues to sustain other government spending programs. The most dramatic economic reconstruction effort went toward capping the more than 700 oil wells set afire by retreating Iraqi forces. In addition to an estimated 2 percent of the country's 100 billion barrels of reserves lost in the oil fires, Kuwait had to pay for putting out fires and repairing damaged refineries, pipelines, and other oil infrastructure. By January 1992, oil output had risen to 550,000 bpd. By June 1992, it was back to nearly 1 million bpd. Nineteen new wells were drilled to replace those damaged by the occupation.
The government hoped to raise production to 2 million bpd by the end of 1993. During the invasion, Iraq destroyed or incapacitated Kuwait's entire 700,000 bpd refining capacity at its three refineries. But by April 1992, production levels rose to 300,000 bpd. Nonetheless, there was concern that the rapid return to production might have damaged Kuwait's oil reservoirs beyond the damage done by retreating Iraqi forces, lowering its total future reserves. Accordingly, KOC contracted with several international companies to assess reservoir damage. However, the government also has been under tremendous pressure to increase oil production quickly to pay for war and postwar expenses. In the mid-1980s, overseas investments outstripped oil as the primary source of revenues. The expenses of war, postwar reconstruction, and investment irregularities that were being uncovered in late 1992 have forced the government to use substantial portions of its investment principal, and in the 1990s oil is again expected to be the major revenue source.

Kuwait business center

Restoring oil operations was expensive. In January 1992, the minister of oil announced Kuwait had already spent US$1.5 billion for putting out fires and planned to spend another US$8 to US$10 billion to repair further damage. A National Bank of Kuwait report in mid-1992 estimated that reconstruction expenses in the oil sector for the 1992-95 period would reach US$6.5 billion.
The rest of the economy also suffered, although the effects were not as severe as the oil-well fires. The banking sector, suffering the shock waves of the Suq al Manakh stock market crash in 1982, recovered slowly from the combined effects of that crash and the invasion. The agenda of the returned government included bank reform. In December 1991, the government announced a comprehensive settlement plan for bad debts, the outstanding issue of the Suq al Manakh crash. The plan involved government purchase of the entire domestic loan portfolio of the country's local banking system. The government agreed to buy US$20 billion of domestic debt from eleven commercial banks and investment companies in exchange for bonds. This plan removed the concerns of Kuwaitis, who would be obliged to repay debts, if at all, on more modest terms, and of banks, concerned about nonperforming loans. Although Shaykh Salim al Abd al Aziz Al Sabah, governor of the Central Bank of Kuwait, said the plan is needed to prevent the collapse of banks, it clearly also is intended as part of a series of government payments to Kuwaiti nationals and businesses aimed at restoring confidence in the government prior to the October election. The plan, announced but as yet incomplete, left the entire banking system in a state of limbo in late 1992.
Banks have suffered less from the physical damage of the war and more from the sudden reduction in the number of employees, many of whom in the prewar period were foreigners. Some banks reported postwar staff levels at half that before the invasion. Although there has been speculation that postwar reform will include mergers involving state-controlled banks (notably the Kuwait Investment Company, the Kuwait International Investment Company, and the Kuwait Foreign Trading, Contracting, and Investment Company, known together as the three Ks) and privatesector banks, no formal action had been taken as of late 1992. The bank that survived the invasion in the best shape was the largest commercial bank, the National Bank of Kuwait. It handled the exiled government's finances during the crisis.
According to a National Bank of Kuwait report issued in mid-1992, several additional factors hurt the private sector's recovery. The first was the government's decision to restrict the number of nonnationals, which hampered efforts to import skilled and unskilled labor and left Kuwait with a smaller market. The second was the lower level of government investment in industry as a result of reduced government income and the government decision to invest more in defense and focus in the short run on restoring basic services. The non-oil manufacturing sector, although small, was hurt by the looting and damage done by Iraqi troops. The government has been in no position to subsidize industries at the level it had in the past. Infrastructure projects incomplete before the invasion have not been resumed or have been delayed.
The only sector of the economy to prosper in the immediate postwar period is trade because of the need to replace inventory emptied during the occupation. Returning Kuwaitis and the government have created a small boom for investors. By mid-1992, however, the return demand largely had been met, and many goods, notably automobiles and consumer durables, were available in excess supply. In an effort to boost the private sector, the government approved an offset program in July 1992 requiring foreign companies to reinvest part of their government-awarded contracts locally. Companies with contracts valued at more than US$17 million have been obliged to reinvest 30 percent of the contract sum.
Despite some speculation that the government would turn more functions over to the private sector following its return, widespread privatization has not occurred. In February 1992, the government announced plans to start privatizing the public telecommunications network, a move that was expected to generate US$1 billion for the government. In May the government announced it would privatize seventy-seven local gas stations. There have been, however, no indications of more substantial denationalizations.
Reconstruction costs, which some foreign observers initially put as high as US$100 billion, appear to be more modest, perhaps in the range of US$20 to US$25 billion. The largest postwar expense the government faces is not reconstruction, but the debt it incurred to coalition allies to help pay for Operation Desert Storm, an amount that came to at least US$20 billion, and continuing high defense expenditures. Reconstruction costs have been met largely from Kuwait's reduced investments (the Financial Times estimated in February 1992 that Kuwait had lost as much as US$30 billion of its prewar investment portfolio); from returning oil revenues, which for fiscal year 1992 were only expected to generate US$2.4 billion; and from borrowing on international money markets. In October 1991, the government announced plans to borrow US$5 billion for the first phase of a five-year loan program. The loan would be the largest in history. In mid-1992 one study indicated that as much as 30 percent of 1993 revenue will be needed to pay interest on various government debts, which were expected to exceed US$37 billion by the end of 1992.
Despite the apparently dire economic situation, the government has felt politically obliged to sustain insofar as possible the prewar standard of living. Some of the largest domestic postwar government expenditures have gone directly to Kuwaiti households. The banking debt buyout was but one of a series of measures taken by the government to help nationals hurt by the invasion. The government decided to pay all government employees (the majority of working nationals) their wages for the period of the occupation. In March 1992, the government raised state salaries. The government also agreed to write off about US$1.2 billion in consumer loans, a measure benefiting more than 120,000 Kuwaitis. It wrote off US$3.4 billion worth of property and housing loans made before the invasion. Each Kuwaiti family that stayed in Kuwait through the occupation received US$1,750. In July 1992, the government exempted Kuwaitis from charges for public services due as a result of the occupation, such as bills for electricity, utilities, and telephone service and for rents on housing.

Trade in Finland

Finland Mosjeed

Country Profile

Formal Name: Republic of Finland
Short Form: Finland
Term for Citizens: Finns
Capital: Helsinki
Date of Independence: December 6, 1917.

GEOGRAPHY

Size: About 338,145 square kilometers, slightly larger than Missouri and Illinois combined. About 10 percent of area made up of inland water. A quarter of the country above Arctic Circle.

Finland in Map

Topography: Four natural regions. Archipelago Finland begins in southwestern coastal waters and culminates in Aland Islands. Coastal Finland a band of clay plains, extending from Soviet to Swedish border. Seldom exceeding width of 100 kilometers, plains slope upward to central plateau that forms basis of interior lake district. This core region contains more than 55,000 lakes set within country's densest forests. Rising above central plateau, upland Finland extends into Lapland, where forests gradually yield to harsh climate. Above timber line are barren fells and numerous bogs. Upland Finland crossed by country's largest and longest rivers.
Climate: Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Drift Current moderate temperatures somewhat, but winter still lasts up to seven months in north, and most years gulfs of Finland and Bothnia freeze, making icebreakers necessary for shipping. Long days in summer permit farming far to north. Continental weather systems can bring quite warm summer temperatures and severe cold spells in winter.

ECONOMY

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): US$70.5 billion in 1986 (US$14,388 per capita). Economy grew faster than other Western industrialized countries throughout 1980s, averaging about 3.3 percent per year from 1980 to 1986.
Agriculture and Forestry: Below 8 percent of GDP and about 10 percent of employment in 1986, but sufficient to make country self-sufficient in staple foods and provide raw material to crucial wood-processing industries.
Industry: Major growth sector, contributing nearly 35 percent of GDP and 32 percent of employment in 1986. Main engine of postwar structural change, industry faced increasing competition in 1980s causing restructuring and a shift to hightechnology products.
Services: Largest sector, providing nearly 58 percent of GDP and about 57 percent of employment in 1986. Generally labor-intensive and uncompetitive, but banking, engineering, and consulting showed promise.
Imports: Raw materials, especially fuels, minerals, and chemicals, but growing share of foods and consumer goods.
Exports: Primarily industrial goods, especially forestry products and metal products; growing high-technology exports.

Goods Trade

Major Trade Partners: Soviet Union largest single trade partner, but West European countries together accounted for nearly two-thirds of trade.
Balance of Payments: Despite positive trade balance, Finnish tourist expenditures abroad and debt service caused continuing current account deficits in 1980s.
General Economic Conditions: Standard of living high despite difficult environment. Inflation traditionally exceeded that of other industrialized countries, but fell below 4 percent in 1986; unemployment, at about 6 percent in 1987, was considered Finland's most serious economic problem.
Exchange Rate: In March 1988, Finnish mark (Fmk) 4.08=US$1. Fully convertible, but some capital controls maintained by Bank of Finland.

Economic Development

Export rate

Material conditions were difficult at the birth of the Finnish republic. The country's industries had started to develop after about 1860, primarily in response to demand for lumber from the more advanced economies of Western Europe, but by 1910 farmers still made up over 70 percent of the work force. Finland suffered from food shortages when international trade broke down during World War I. The fledgling metal-working and shipbuilding industries expanded rapidly to supply Russia during the early years of the conflict, but the empire's military collapse and the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917 eliminated trade with the East. The Finnish civil war and the subsequent massacres of the Reds spawned lasting labor unrest in factories and lumber camps, while the plight of landless agricultural laborers remained a pressing social problem.
During the immediate postwar years, Finland depended on aid from the United States to avoid starvation, but by 1922 industrial production had reached the prewar level. While trade with the Soviet Union languished for political reasons, West European, especially German, markets for Finnish forest products soon reopened. In exchange for lumber, pulp, and paper--which together accounted for about 85 percent of exports--Finland obtained needed imports, including half the nation's food supply and virtually all investment goods.
Despite political instability, the state built a foundation for growth and for greater economic independence. The first and most important step was an agricultural reform that redistributed holdings of agricultural and forest land and strengthened the class of smallholders who had a direct stake in improving farm and forest productivity. The government also nationalized large shares of the mining and the wood-processing industries. The subsequent public investment program in mines, foundries, wood and paper mills, and shipyards improved the country's ability to process its own raw materials. By the late 1920s, agricultural modernization was well under way, and the country had laid the foundations for future industrialization.
Although Finland suffered less than more-developed European countries during the Great Depression of the 1930s, the country nonetheless experienced widespread distress, which inspired further government intervention in the economy. Comprehensive protection of agricultural produce encouraged farmers to shift from exportable animal products to basic grains, a policy that kept farm incomes from falling as rapidly as they did elsewhere and enabled the country to feed itself better. Similar policies spurred production of consumer goods, maintaining industrial employment. As in other Nordic countries, the central bank experimented with Keynesian demand-management policies.
In the 1930s, Britain replaced Germany as Finland's main trading partner. The two countries made bilateral agreements that gave Finnish forest goods free access to British markets and established preferential tariffs for British industrial products sold to Finland. Consequently, Finland's largest industry, paper production, expanded throughout the depression years (although falling prices led to declining export revenues). The economic growth of Finland resumed in 1933 and continued until 1939.
Production and employment had largely recovered from the effects of the depression when the Winter War began in 1939. The struggle marked the beginning of five years of warfare and privation. By 1944, after two defeats at the hands of the Soviet Union and severe losses suffered while expelling German troops, Finland's economy was nearly exhausted. Under the terms of the 1944 armistice with the Soviet Union, the country ceded about 12 percent of its territory, including valuable farmland and industrial facilities, and agreed to onerous reparations payments. To many Finns, it appeared that most of the achievements of the interwar years had been undone.
Postwar reconstruction proved difficult. Resettling refugees from the areas ceded to the Soviet Union required another land reform act, subsidies for agricultural infrastructure, and support payments for displaced industrial workers. Reparations deliveries to the Soviet Union absorbed much of the country's export potential. The need to remain politically neutral precluded participation in the Marshall Plan (European Recovery Program), but Finland arranged substantial loans from the United States Export-Import Bank to finance expansion in the forest industries. High inflation rates inherited from the war years fed labor militancy, which further threatened output.
Despite these setbacks, the tenacious Finns soon fought their way back to economic growth. Reparations turned out to be a blessing in disguise--at least for the metalworking industries, which supplied about three-fourths of the goods delivered to the Soviet Union. In effect, forced investment in metalworking laid the foundations for Finland's later export successes. The fulfillment of the reparations payments in 1952 symbolized the end of the postwar difficulties, but the real turning point probably came in about 1950, with the Korean War boom in the West. During the 1950s, the metalworking industries continued to export to the Soviet Union, a market in which the Finns faced virtually no competition from other Western countries. Extensive borrowing in Western financial markets--especially in Sweden and in the United States--financed investments in infrastructure, agriculture, and industry. The consumer goods and construction sectors prospered in the booming domestic market, which remained protected by import controls until the end of the decade.

ERU billion of Finland

From 1950 to 1974, Finland's gross national product grew at an average annual rate of 5.2 percent, considerably higher than the 4.4 percent average for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. However, partly as a result of continued dependence on volatile lumber exports, this growth was more unstable than that in other OECD countries. The business cycle caused fluctuations in output that averaged 8 percent of gross domestic product. Finland's structural transformation was brutally quick, driving workers out of agriculture more quickly than had been the case in any other Western country. Although manufacturing output increased sharply, many displaced farm workers could not be placed in industry. At the same time, Finnish inflation, which tended to exceed that of the country's major trading partners, necessitated regular currency devaluations. Yet, despite the costs of economic growth, most Finns were happy to have escaped the hardships of the depression and the war years.
Rapid structural transformation led to innovative economic policies. During the 1950s, the state had maintained strict controls on many aspects of economic life, protecting the country's fragile economic balance, but it had lifted many restrictions by the end of the decade. Moreover, in 1957 policy makers chose to liberalize foreign trade in industrial goods, strongly influencing future economic developments. The achievement of prosperity in the 1960s made possible the extension of the welfare state, a development that did much to reduce tensions between workers and management. Finland's increased foreign trade made industrial competitiveness more important, causing greater interest in restraining the inflationary wage- price spiral. Starting in 1968, the government succeeded in sponsoring regular negotiations on wages, benefits, and working conditions. The political consensus that developed around incomes settlements helped to slow inflation and to increase productivity. Liberalization, welfare programs, and incomes policy thus helped to maintain economic growth during the 1960s and facilitated stronger economic relations with both Eastern and Western Europe.
In the 1970s and 1980s, changes in domestic and international economic conditions posed new challenges. At home, Finland was reaching the limits of extensive economic growth. Expansion was incorporating ever- greater amounts of raw materials, capital, and labor in the production process. The economy needed to shift to intensive growth through better resource management, improved labor productivity, and newer technologies. In international markets, the oil crises of 1973 and 1979 caused particular difficulties for the Finns, who imported over 80 percent of their primary energy supplies. The country did suffer less than other West European countries from increased oil prices because of its special trading relationship with the Soviet Union, which supplied petroleum in exchange for Finnish industrial goods. However, recession in Western markets, growing technological competition, and tighter financial markets made Finland's traditional cycles of inflation and devaluation untenable. Thus, although the country managed to delay austerity measures for five years, in 1978 balance-of-payments considerations compelled the government to introduce a far-reaching reform package designed to ensure the competitiveness of Finnish industry in world markets.
Although the austerity package pursued after 1978 slowed growth in personal consumption, the consensus approach to wage and benefit negotiations remained reasonably intact. In addition, many Finnish workers proved sufficiently flexible to accept transfers from declining sectors to those in which the country enjoyed a comparative advantage. As a result of competent macroeconomic management and favorable trading relations with both Eastern and Western Europe, Finland was able to sustain growth in GDP at an average annual rate of about 3.3 percent from 1980 to 1986--a rate well above the OECD average.

Trade rate of Finland

During the 1980s, structural developments in the Finnish economy paralleled those in other West European economies. Although surplus production of animal products plagued agriculture and led to cutbacks in agricultural subsidies, the country preserved family farming. Policy makers continued to monitor forestry, energy, and mineral resources closely, even when falling petroleum prices reduced pressures on the economy. Industry underwent intensive restructuring, eliminating many inefficient producers and consolidating healthy enterprises. Despite mergers and rationalization, Finland lost fewer industrial jobs than most OECD countries, so that unemployment was held below the double-digit levels common elsewhere on the continent. Private services, especially banking and insurance, expanded more rapidly than other sectors, also helping to limit unemployment.

Structure of the Economy

By 1986 postwar economic growth had raised Finland's GDP to about US$70.5 billion, making the country one of the most prosperous in the world. Economic expansion over the years had substantially altered the structure of the economy. By 1986 agriculture, forestry, and fishing had fallen to a little under 8 percent of GDP from nearly 26 percent in 1950. Industry, including mining, manufacturing, construction, and utilities, accounted for about 35 percent of GDP, down from about 40 percent in 1950. Within industry, metalworking had grown most rapidly, its output almost equalling that of wood processing by the late 1970s. In the late 1980s, industrialists looked forward to a shift toward electronics and other high-technology products.
While agriculture and industry had declined in relative terms during the postwar years, the service sector had grown from about 34 percent of GDP to almost 58 percent, leading some observers to characterize Finland as a postindustrial society. Several factors accounted for the expansion of the service sector. Government, very small under the Russian Empire, grew rapidly between the Great Depression and the early 1970s as the state took responsibility for an increasingly greater share of economic life. In addition, transportation, communications, engineering, finance, and commerce became more important as the economy further developed and diversified.

Currency picture of Finland

Control and ownership of Finland's economic life were highly concentrated, especially after the industrial and financial restructuring of the 1980s. Thus, by 1987 three firms controlled most shipbuilding, a small number of woodworking enterprises dominated the forest industries, and two main commercial banks exercised wide-reaching influence over industrial development. Large state-owned firms provided most of the energy, basic metals, and chemicals. The country's farmers, workers, and employers had formed centralized associations that represented the vast majority of economic actors. Likewise, a handful of enterprises handled most trade with the Soviet Union. Some observers suggested that the trend toward internationalization might increase the influence of foreign firms and executives in Finnish enterprises, but this effect would make itself felt slowly. Thus, while Finland remained a land of family farms, a narrow elite ran the economy, facilitating decision making, but perhaps contributing to the average worker's sense of exclusion, which may have contributed to the country's endemic labor unrest.

FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS

International economic relations--especially foreign trade-- have been vital for Finland throughout the twentieth century, but never have they been more so than during the 1980s. The country was self-sufficient in staple foods, and domestic supplies covered about 70 percent of the value of the raw materials used by industry. However, imports of petroleum, minerals, and other products were crucial for both the agricultural and the industrial sectors. From the end of World War II until the late 1970s, the development of modern infrastructure and new industries required substantial capital imports. Sound foreign economic relations made it possible to exchange exports for needed imports and to service the large foreign debt. A policy of removing obstacles to the mobility of commodities, services, and factors of production facilitated economic modernization.

Foreign trade growth

Business leaders and government policy makers devised innovative strategies to manage economic relations. Close economic ties to the Soviet Union grew out of the postwar settlement under which Finland agreed to pay reparations and to maintain a form of neutrality that would preclude threats to Soviet security. Except for agriculture, which remained strictly protected, postwar commercial policy sought to link Finland's economy with the economics of the Nordic area and of Western Europe as closely as possible without aggravating Soviet fears that such economic ties would undermine loyalty to the East. Thus, since 1957 Finland had pursued trade liberalization and had established industrial free-trade agreements with both West European and East European countries. Spurred by these liberal policies, exports and imports had each grown to account for roughly one-quarter of GDP by the mid-1980s. By the late 1980s, Finnish industrial and service firms were going beyond trade to internationalize production by attracting foreign partners for their domestic operations and by acquiring foreign firms. Most observers believed that Finnish firms needed to follow an international tack not only to protect export shares but also to maintain their positions in domestic markets.

Foreign Trade

Trade in agricultural commodities, consumer products, and services had been relatively limited, but exchanges with the outside world were crucial for industry. Not only had the forest industries grown largely in response to foreign demand for wood and paper, but the metal-working industry had also taken off only under the goad of postwar reparations deliveries to the Soviet Union. By the mid-1980s, exports accounted for half of all industrial output and for as much as 80 percent of the output of the crucial forest industries. Similarly, imports of energy, raw materials, and investment goods remained essential for industrial production. The development of export-oriented industries had driven Finland's postwar structural transformation, indirectly affecting the rest of the economy. Industrial competitiveness would largely determine the economy's overall health into the 1990s.
During the postwar period, Finnish exports shifted from lumber and other raw materials to increasingly sophisticated products, a change which reflected the increasing diversification of the country's economic structure. The forest industries continued to dominate exports, but, while they had accounted for about 85 percent of total exports in 1950, they accounted for only 40 percent by the mid-1980s. The relative shares of different forest exports also shifted. Sawn timber and various board products accounted for more than one-third of total exports in 1950, but by 1985 they had fallen to only 8 percent. Exports of pulp and paper fell more gradually during the same period, from 43 percent of exports to about 30 percent. Pulp and cardboard, the main exports of the chemical wood-processing branch, declined in importance, while specialized paper products incorporating higher value added, such as packing material, printed paper, and coated paper, grew in importance.
Taking the place of forest products, exports of metal products grew rapidly during the postwar period from a little over 4 percent of exports to about 28 percent. Here, too, exports of more sophisticated manufactured goods grew faster than those of basic products. By the late 1980s, basic metals accounted for about 20 percent of metal exports, ships for about 25 percent, and machinery and equipment for about 20 percent. Advanced products such as electronics and process-control equipment were gaining on conventionally engineered products. The chemical industry had exported relatively little until the 1970s, but by 1985 it had grown to account for about 12 percent of exports. By contrast, the textile, confectionery, and leather goods industries had peaked at over 10 percent in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and then they had fallen to about 6 percent of exports by the mid-1980s. Minor export sectors included processed foods, building materials, agricultural products, and furs.
Up to the 1970s, Finland tended to export wood-based products to the West, and metal and engineering products to the East. By the mid-1980s, however, Finnish machines and high-technology products were also becoming competitive in Western markets.

Statistic of foreign trade

Finland's imports had consisted primarily of raw materials, energy, and capital goods for industrial production, and in the late 1980s these categories still accounted for roughly twothirds of all imports. The commodity structure of imports responded both to structural changes in domestic production and to shifts in world markets. Thus, the heavy purchases of raw materials, energy, and capital goods up until the mid-1970s reflected Finland's postwar industrial development, while the subsequent period showed the influences of unstable world energy prices and Finland's shifts toward high-technology production. Imports of investment goods climbed from about 15 percent in 1950 to almost 30 percent in the late 1960s and early 1970s, only to fall again by the 1980s to about 15 percent. Foodstuffs and raw materials for the textile industry accounted for about half of all raw material imports during the 1950s, but by the 1980s inputs for the chemical and metal-processing industries took some 75 percent of raw material imports. World energy prices had strongly influenced Finnish trade because the country needed to import about 70 percent of its energy. After rising slowly until the early 1970s, the value of oil imports had jumped to almost one-third of that of total imports in the mid-1970s, then had fallen with world oil prices to about 13 percent by the late 1980s.
Like its export markets, Finland's import sources were concentrated in Western Europe and the Soviet Union. The country usually obtained raw materials, especially petroleum, from the East and purchased capital goods from the West.
Finnish service exports had exceeded service imports until the early 1980s. Up until this time, shipping and tourism earnings had generally exceeded interest payments to service the national debt. In the mid-1980s, however, the balance was reversed as the earnings of the merchant marine declined and Finns began to spend more on tourism abroad. Although Finnish businesses tried to compete in these labor-intensive sectors, the country's high wage levels made shipping and tourism difficult to export.
Like other Nordic countries, Finland's trade was concentrated in the Nordic area and in Europe. Unlike the others, however, Finland had, as its most important trading partner, the Soviet Union. During the postwar years, trade with the Soviets had expanded and contracted in response to political developments and market forces. During the immediate postwar period, the Soviet share of Finland's trade, spurred by reparations payments, rose to over 30 percent. However, the following two decades saw this share gradually decline as Finland expanded exports to Western Europe. A second cycle began after the 1973 oil crisis, when recession in Western markets cut demand for Finnish products while the increased value of Soviet oil deliveries to Finland allowed expanded exports to the East. Finnish exports to the Soviet Union rose sharply during the years after 1973, only to fall--along with world petroleum prices--by 1986.
By the late 1980s, the geographical distribution of Finland's trade was moving back to the pre-1973 pattern. In 1986, for example, although the Soviet Union continued to be Finland's single largest trade partner, trade with West European countries, which together accounted for about 61 percent of Finnish trade, was much more important than trade with the Soviet Union. Finland's main trade partners in Western Europe were Sweden, which took the biggest share of Finnish exports, and the Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany), which supplied the largest slice of Finnish imports. East European countries other than the Soviet Union accounted for only slightly over 2 percent of trade. Non-European countries were responsible for some 19 percent of trade. The United States, Finland's main non-European trade partner, accounted for over 5 percent of Finnish exports and imports in 1987.
As in many small European countries, the postwar trade policy of Finland had been to pursue free trade in industrial products while protecting agriculture and services. During the 1980s, strict quotas still blocked imports of most agricultural commodities (except for tropical products that could not be produced domestically), but liberalized regulations allowed increased imports of services, especially financial services. Most industrial imports and exports were free of surcharges, tariffs, and quotas under multilateral and bilateral agreements between Finland and its major trading partners. Health and security concerns, however, inspired restrictions on imports of products such as radioactive materials, pharmaceuticals, arms and ammunition, live animals, meat, seeds, and plants. With a few exceptions, Finland discontinued export licensing in the early 1960s. The State Granary, however, controlled all trade in grains, while the Roundwood Export Commission reviewed all lumber exports.

Finnish Direct Investment Abroad

From the end of World War II until the 1970s, Finland imported large amounts of capital to finance infrastructure investment and industrial development; however, by 1987 Finnish capital exports exceeded capital imports by about six to one. During the earlier period, foreign firms had set up subsidiaries in Finland, but few Finnish enterprises had established branches abroad. In the 1970s, the forest industry led a shift toward capital exports by founding sales outlets in the most important foreign markets, especially in Western Europe. The metalworking and chemical industries did not begin to expand overseas until the late 1970s, but they made up for lost time during the following decade. These industries first invested in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark, important markets sharing Nordic culture. Next came subsidiaries in the United States, which by the mid1980s became the second-largest recipient of Finnish investments after Sweden and which hosted more than 300 Finnish manufacturing and sales firms. In the late 1980s, some firms targeted markets in the rapidly expanding economies of the Pacific basin. Beginning in the late 1980s, the service sector began to follow industry abroad. Banks, insurance companies, and engineering and architectural firms established branches in major business centers worldwide. By the late 1980s, Finnish firms owned more than 1,600 foreign concerns, of which some 250 were engaged in manufacturing; more than 900, in sales and marketing; and 450, in other functions.
Businessmen had many motives for setting up overseas operations. In general, the Finns wanted to deepen ties with industrialized countries where consumers and businesses could afford high-quality Finnish goods. Maintaining access to important markets in an era of increasing protectionism and keeping up with new technologies had become crucial. Finnish enterprises, generally small by international standards, needed additional sources of capital and know-how to develop new technologies. Analysts believed that, despite their small size, Finnish firms could succeed abroad if they followed a comprehensive strategy, not only selling finished products but also offering their services in the management of raw materials and energy, development of new technologies, and design of attractive products.

GDP of Finland

Government policies helped achieve greater international integration of productive facilities. During the 1980s, legislation relaxed limits on foreign investment in Finnish firms, allowing foreigners to hold up to 40 percent of corporate equities; likewise, the BOF loosened restrictions on capital exports. The Technology Development Center (TEKES), under the Ministry of Trade and Industry, sponsored international cooperation in research and development. The government also arranged for Finnish participation in joint projects sponsored by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the European Community, including the EC's Eureka technology development program. Although it was still too early to predict how Finland would perform in international joint ventures, many observers felt that such enterprises were the best way for the country to achieve industrial progress.

Trade in Brazil

Brazil

Mosjeed of Brazil

Country

Official Name: Federative Republic of Brazil (República Fede-rativa do Brasil).
Short Name: Brazil (Brasil).
Term for Citizen(s): Brazilian(s).
Capital: Brasília.
Independence: September 7, 1822 (from Portugal).

Geography

Size and Location: Standard figure is 8,511,996 square kilometers (including oceanic islands of Arquipélago de Fernando de Noronha, Atol das Rocas, Ilha da Trindade, Ilhas Martin Vaz, and Penedos de São Pedro e São Paulo). According to revised figure of Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Fundação Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística--IBGE), which takes into account new measurements, total area is 8,547,403.5 square kilometers. Brazil occupies about 47 percent of continental area. Country situated between 05°16'20" north latitude and 33°44'32" south latitude, and between 34°47'30" east longitude and 73°59'32" west longitude. Its boundaries extend 23,086 kilometers, of which 7,367 kilometers on Atlantic Ocean. To north, west, and south, Brazil shares boundaries with all South American countries except Chile and Ecuador.

Brazil in Map

Standard Time: With an east-to-west territorial dimension of 4,319 kilometers, Brazil has four time zones. In most of country, time is three hours earlier than Greenwich time. Between summer months of October and February, country adopts daylight savings time, setting clock forward by one hour, in Southeast (Sudeste), Center-West (Centro-Oeste), and South (Sul) regions, and in states of Bahia in Northeast (Nordeste) and Tocantins in North (Norte).
Maritime Claims: Exclusive economic zone 322 kilometers (200 nautical miles).
Boundary Disputes: A short section of boundary with Paraguay, just west of Salto das Sete Quedas (Guairá Falls) on Paraná; and two short sections of boundary with Uruguay--Arroio Invernada area of Cuareim and islands at confluence of Quaraí and Uruguai.
Topography and Climate: Consisting of dense forest, semiarid scrub land, rugged hills and mountains, rolling plains, and long coastal strip, Brazil's landmass dominated by Amazon Basin and Central Highlands. Principal mountain ranges (Serra do Mar) parallel Atlantic coast. Climate varies from mostly tropical in North, where it is seldom cold, to more temperate in South, where it snows in some places. Also wide range of subtropical variations. World's largest rain forest located in Amazon Basin. Higher annual measurements (26°C to 28°C) occur in Northeast's interior and mid- and lower Amazon River. Lowest values (under 18°C) occur in hilly areas of Southeast and largest part of South. Highest absolute values, over 40°C, are recorded in Northeast's low interior lands; in Southeast's depressions, valleys, and lowlands; in Center-West's Pantanal (Great Wetlands) and lower areas; and in South's central depressions and Uruguai Valley. Lowest absolute temperatures often show negative values in most of South, where frosts and snow usual. Rainy areas correspond to Pará's coastal lands and western Amazonas, where annual rainfall greater than 3,000 millimeters. In Southeast on Serra do Mar (São Paulo State), recorded annual rainfall exceeds 3,500 millimeters. Drought areas located in interior Northeast, where annual rainfall under 500 millimeters. Maximum precipitation occurs during summer-autumn in most parts of country, except for Roraima and north Amazonas, where rainy season occurs during winter because these two states are located in Northern Hemisphere.
Principal Rivers: Vast, dense drainage system consisting of eight hydrographic basins. Amazon and Tocantins-Araguaia basins account for 56 percent of total drainage area. World's greatest fluvial island, Bananal, located in Center-West Region on Araguaia. With ten of world's twenty greatest rivers, Amazon (Amazonas) is world's largest in volume of water and one of world's longest (6,762 kilometers, of which 3,615 kilometers are in Brazil), discharging 15.5 percent of all fresh water flowing into oceans from rivers. Union of Paraná and Iguaçu in South, at border between Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay, forms Iguaçu Falls at Foz do Iguaçu.

Economy

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) estimated US$775 billion for 1997, as compared with US$387 billion for 1992. EIU's estimated GDP real growth rate for 1997, 3.7 percent; and 1998, 4.0 percent. Of 1995 GDP of US$717 billion, 47.3 percent generated by trade and services, 42.0 percent by industry, and 10.7 percent by agriculture.

Brazilian GDP

Per Capita GDP and Minimum Wage: Per capita GDP US$5,128 (1997). GDP per capita average annual growth rate, 0.8 per-cent (1985-94). Minimum wage as of June 1995: US$108.46, or just over R$100 a month (for value of real--see Glossary), as compared with US$68.93, or R$70 a month, in July 1994, amounting to an actual increase of only 10 percent because of inflation. Minimum wage raised by 12 percent in May 1996.
Inflation: Inflation reached 50 percent per month by June 1994 and averaged 31.2 percent a month in 1994, for total of 2,294.0 percent that year. As result of Real Plan, declined to monthly rates of between 1 and 3 percent in 1995, for an annual rate of 25.9 percent. In 1996: 16.5 percent; 1997: 7.2 percent.
Employment and Unemployment: Estimated labor force in 1997: 65.5 million. Services sector employed 66 percent of women and 42 percent of men; industry, 14 percent of women and 23 percent of men; business, 15 percent of women and 15 percent of men; civil construction, 11 percent of men; other activities, 5 percent of women and 9 percent of men. Men held 61 percent of total jobs. Women's wages averaged 62 percent of those of men but declined to 54 percent in services sector. Recorded unemployment rate (includes only people actively looking for work and over age fifteen) in 1997: 5.5 percent.
Agriculture: One of world's leading exporters of agricultural products. Grain production in 1996: 73 million tons. According to estimates of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of United Nations, Brazil produced 79.4 million tons of grains (record crop) in 1995, as compared with 56.1 million tons in 1990. Center-West and South and Rondônia account for 90 percent of crops. In 1995, 81.6 million tons of crops har-vested, but producers saw their income reduced by about US$10.4 billion, or 26 percent, owing to price decreases. Country has 46.5 million hectares under cultivation, 174.1 million hectares in grazing lands, and 140.6 million hectares in arable land. Crop year runs from June to May. From 1982 to 1992, total cultivated area fell by 30 percent, but production of certain grains, in tons per hectare, increased by 14.9 percent. Agricultural sector employed 29.4 percent of labor force in 1992. It accounted for 10.7 percent of GDP in 1996. It accounts for almost 40 percent of exports. Except for wheat, Brazil largely self-sufficient in food. Each farmer feeds 3.6 city dwellers, whereas 2.5 farmers were needed to feed each city dweller in 1940. Brazil is world's largest exporter of coffee, orange juice concentrate, and tobacco, and second largest exporter of sugar and soybeans. In addition to sugar, Brazil produces a large quantity of ethanol (mainly used as fuel) from crushed sugarcane. Other important crops: manioc, corn, and rice. In addition to oranges, principal fruits are lemons, mangoes, guavas, passion fruit, and tangerines.
Industry: Capital goods (see Glossary) production increased in 1970s with creation of new companies and large capital investments in transportation, communications, and energy infrastructure. New technologically sophisticated industries begun in that decade included weapons, aircraft, and computer manufacturing and nuclear power production. Industrial growth slowed by economic crisis of 1980s. After start of Real Plan, industrial production increased vigorously by 7.5 percent from 1993 to 1994. Manufacturing accounted for 62 percent of exports in 1996. Industrial growth in 1997 was 3.9 percent.

Industry of Brazil

Energy: 94 percent of current energy capacity hydroelectric. Electricity consumption expanded by 7.6 percent in 1995 (versus 4.2 percent for GDP) and by 5.7 percent in first half of 1996 (versus projected GDP growth rate of 3 percent). A dozen hydroelectric and thermal plants being privatized because electricity demand expected to outstrip supply by 1999, and state unable to pay off energy-sector debts. A blackout in April 1997 affecting 20 million people expected to become an increasingly common occurrence. Predominance of highland rivers presents great potential for hydroelectric power pro-duction. Hydropower generating potential: 106,500 to 129,046 megawatts/year, of which 24.4 percent in operation or under construction, 35.8 percent inventoried, and 39.8 percent esti-mated (1994 estimate). In 1992, of 233,682 gigawatt-hours generated, 217,782 hydroelectric, 14,454 thermal, and 1,446 nuclear. Nuclear power generation in early 1998 was still negligible. About 60 percent of energy supply derived from renewable sources, such as hydroelectricity and ethanol. National oil production surpassed a record 840,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 1997. Petroleum imports in 1995: 760,000 bpd (442,000 bpd crude; 318,000 bpd derivatives). Brazil relies on natural gas for only 2 percent of energy needs. Produced more than 17 million cubic meters of natural gas per day in early 1990s.
Services: In 1994 services accounted for approximately 43.6 percent of work force.
Trade Balance: Total trade in 1997: US$109.4 billion, com-pared with US$77.3 billion in 1994. In ten years, 1985-95, foreign trade of Brazil accounted for US$521.8 billion, with surplus of US$129.3 billion. Foreign trade deficit in 1997: US$10.9 billion.
Imports: Totaled US$60.1 billion in 1997, as compared with US$20.5 billion in 1993. Average import duties dropped to 14 percent from 51 percent since 1988. Major suppliers in 1996: United States, 22.2 percent; Germany, 9.0 percent; Argentina, 12.7 percent; and Japan, 5.2 percent. Half of Brazil's imports of manufactured goods come from United States. Brazil only other major Latin American country besides Chile to import oil, which in 1996 cost an estimated US$6.4 billion.
Exports: Totaled US$49.2 billion in 1997, as compared with US$39.6 billion in 1993. Brazil's strengthened currency has made its exports less competitive. Brazil exports large part of world's production of tin, iron, manganese, and steel. Also one of world's largest exporters of food, mainly sugar, coffee, cocoa, soybeans, and orange juice. Major markets in 1996: United States, 19.5 percent; Argentina, 10.8 percent; Japan, 6.4 percent; and the Netherlands, 7.4 percent.
Tariffs: Average tariff rate: 14.0 percent; tariff ceiling: 70 percent on automobiles (imposed in mid-1995).

Ethanol exports in Brazil

Reserves: International reserves in first quarter of 1998: US$63 billion.
Budget Deficit: Current account deficit in 1997: US$32.3 billion. EIU's current account deficit estimate for 1998: US$33.6 billion.
Internal Debt: Total debt of public sector (federal, state, and municipal governments): US$77 billion (1994). Totaled record US$213 billion (36.8 percent of GDP) in 1995, according to official figures, or US$267 billion (46 percent of GDP), if some unregistered existing debts included. IBGE calculated total domestic debt to be R$304.8 billion in September 1995, or 60.9 percent of estimated 1995 GNP. Public Sector Borrowing Requirement reached 5.6 percent of GDP in 1996, as compared with 5.1 percent in 1995.
External Debt: US$177.6 billion (public and private) in 1997; US$193.2 billion estimated by EIU for 1998. Total debt service: US$15 billion (1996). Debt-service ratio: 58.7 percent (1997).
Official Exchange Rate: On July 1, 1994, new currency, the real (pl., reais), introduced. As of January 31, 1996, government widened to 7.07 percent range within which value vis-à-vis United States dollar may vary. Exchange rate on April 13, 1998: R$1.140=US$1.
Foreign Investment: US$52 billion in 1996, US$38 billion in 1995, and US$25 billion in 1994.
Fiscal Year: Calendar year.
Fiscal Policy: Stabilization program in 1994-96 developed originally by Fernando Henrique Cardoso (president, 1995- ) as minister of finance (May 1993 to April 1994). End of inflation in 1994 quickly increased demand and spending power of poorer Brazilians especially. Government endeavoring to dampen inflationary pressures. In order to consolidate stabilization program and put Brazil on path to long-term sustainable growth, government must implement wide-ranging structural reforms. Restrictive monetary policy has kept interest rates high and reduced aggregate demand and inflation, while improving trade balance. Fiscal position deteriorated considerably in 1995. Expansion of internal public debt a major threat to government's control over fiscal and monetary policy. Monetary policy somewhat more flexible since August 1995 because of lower level of economic activity, declining inflation rate, and abundance of foreign capital to finance current account.

Exchange Rates and Foreign Trade

The single most important policy tool for influencing Brazil's balance of payments is the exchange rate. Brazilian exchange-rate policy has evolved over the past several decades. Policy makers and Brazilian exporters believed that trade flows in the 1960s and 1970s were most effectively managed through trade policies such as tariffs (see Glossary), import controls, or export incentives. Beginning in the 1980s, they began to recognize that balance of payments adjustments may be more efficiently pursued using the exchange rate, rather than tariffs, subsidies, and direct controls on trade. This evolution in thinking reflects in part the increasing skepticism among many Brazilians, both economists and policy makers, about the government's ability to maintain external balance using trade policy without creating severe economic distortions.
Even more important, however, was the exchange-rate experience of the early 1980s. Following the onset of Mexico's debt crisis in 1982 and the resulting inability of Brazil to continue to finance its current-account deficit through external borrowing, the cruzeiro was devalued sharply against the dollar in February 1983. Unlike the earlier "maxidevaluation" of December 1979, which was soon undermined by rapid increases in internal cruzeiro prices, the real depreciation of the cruzeiro resulting from the 1983 adjustment was maintained for the next several years. Exports increased substantially in 1983 and 1984, and the value of imports fell by over US$5 billion between 1982 and 1984. Although some of this decline resulted from the fall in petroleum prices from their record levels in 1981, the response of the trade deficit to the large and sustained real depreciation of the cruzeiro provided clear evidence that Brazil's external adjustment problem could be addressed through exchange-rate policy. The experience of the early 1980s, in fact, led to the recognition that Brazil's real problem was not the private sector's lack of response to the exchange rate, but the inability of the domestic economy, particularly the public sector, to generate the net saving that is the counterpart of a current-account surplus.
Brazil's success in moving the current account into surplus after 1982 implied a corresponding adjustment in either net private saving (private saving minus private investment) or in public-sector saving (tax receipts and other public revenues minus public expenditures). Because net public-sector saving actually deteriorated in the 1980s, the burden of adjustment fell on the private sector, particularly on investment. The dramatic fall in investment after 1982 had important consequences for Brazilian competitiveness and hence for the potential benefits that Brazil would derive from trade reform.

Brazil cotton statistic

Thus, the experience of the early 1980s suggests that the Brazilian economy had responded to real exchange rates that facilitated external adjustment, but the policy also reduced domestic private investment and future economic growth. In retrospect, the delay among policy makers in using the exchange rate as the primary tool for achieving external balance is surprising. Their approach may have been influenced in part, however, by the success of the "crawling-peg" policy instituted in August 1968. This policy consisted of small but frequent adjustments in the nominal exchange rate in line with Brazilian inflation and price changes in Brazil's major trade partners, primarily the United States. It ushered in a long period of real exchange-rate stability, broken only a decade later by the December 1979 devaluation. The crawling-peg policy was a marked improvement over the earlier exchange-rate regime, in which the combination of domestic inflation and a nominal exchange rate fixed for long periods of time resulted in large fluctuations and uncertainty about the real exchange rate. The real rate may in fact have been too stable, however, leading Brazil to delay the appropriate exchange-rate response to the external shocks of the 1970s.
A rise in the real exchange rate represents an increase in Brazilian price competitiveness in international markets. Such an increase in price competitiveness could be caused by a depreciation of the cruzeiro against the dollar, a rise in United States prices, or a fall in Brazilian prices. A slowing of inflation in the 1970s made Brazil more competitive, while the rapid acceleration of inflation in the second half of the 1980s substantially eroded Brazil's price competitiveness. Unlike other episodes in which the actual effects of a devaluation were rapidly undercut by Brazilian inflation, the 1983 real devaluation was maintained through frequent adjustments in the nominal exchange rate, sufficient to maintain Brazil's price competitiveness in international markets until the 1986 Cruzado Plan froze the nominal exchange rate.
A number of implications for Brazil's balance of payments policy are clear from exchange-rate trends and movements in the current account. First, by the 1980s it was clear that Brazilian trade flows were strongly responsive to the real exchange rate. If "elasticity pessimism," which hypothesizes that trade responses to relative prices are low, was ever justified in the Brazilian case, those days were long past. Since the late 1960s, Brazil has ceased to be a developing country in terms of its trade flows. Traditional primary products, such as coffee, cocoa, or sugar, in recent years have accounted for less than a third of the value of Brazilian exports. The increasing importance of manufactured exports, as well as the variety of local import substitutes, makes Brazil's trade balance responsive to real exchange-rate changes. This responsiveness removes one of the traditional justifications for extensive tariff and import restriction policies and for administrative intervention in trade to attain external balance. The evidence of the past several decades suggests that Brazil can attain external balance without extensive market intervention, however harsh the domestic effects of external adjustment.
Second, the introduction of a degree of indexation of the nominal exchange rate in the form of the crawling-peg policy has permitted the external sector to avoid some of the consequences of domestic inflation that would otherwise have produced much more severe external payments crises. Real exchange rates remained relatively stable for a decade after the policy's introduction in 1968. Unlike several other Latin American countries such as Argentina, Brazil avoided the sharp swings in the real exchange rate resulting from domestic inflation and infrequent adjustment of the nominal rate. When Brazil departed from this pattern, as it did in 1986 during the Cruzado Plan, policy makers soon learned that this was a mistake. Subsequent stabilization plans, even if they were failures for other reasons, at least did not succumb to the temptation to use the exchange rate as an anti-inflationary weapon.
Finally, and perhaps more negatively, Brazilian exchange-rate policy transformed Brazil's external adjustment problems of the early 1980s into more intractable domestic balance problems in the early 1990s. Contrary to the initial expectations of many observers, Brazil was able to solve its external balance problem after the 1982 debt crisis with surprising speed. The cost was a sharp increase in the demand for domestic saving to replace lost foreign capital inflows. With little increase in net public-sector saving or in private-sector gross saving, investment fell substantially, undercutting the growth of the Brazilian capital stock and the economy's potential growth in competitiveness.

Capital Flows and the External Debt

Much of Brazil's economic experience in the past two decades has been dominated by large capital inflows that attained record levels in the 1970s, only to collapse after 1983 in the wake of the Mexican debt crisis. For the rest of the decade, Brazil coped with the consequences of this collapse, and only in the 1990s did capital again begin to flow into the Brazilian economy, with a substantial increase after the Real Plan.
The enormous inflow of external capital to Brazil that ended in 1982 had its roots in a number of policies and institutional changes in the preceding two decades. The military government that seized power in April 1964 quickly reformed existing laws governing direct foreign investments, including liberalizing restrictions on remittances of profits and simplifying procedures for reinvestment of profits. The changes did not address the effects of inflation in the currency of the lending country, however, so that the real returns on a direct investment were affected negatively by inflation in dollar prices. The negative effect of dollar inflation on a direct foreign investment in Brazil arose because the original investment was registered in a fixed dollar amount, on which allowances for profits and remittances were calculated. A million-dollar investment in 1964, for example, would still be registered as a million-dollar investment in 1974. Higher nominal dollar profits in 1974 would then result in a substantially higher nominal profit rate and a heftier Brazilian tax, thus lowering the real return.

Foreign Trade of Brazil

Financial lending to Brazil was different because the interest rate on the loan, usually denominated in dollars, incorporated the market's expectations of inflation. The asymmetrical treatment of financial capital flows and direct investment was one of the reasons total capital flows to Brazil in the post-1964 period were dominated by bank lending, which at times was ten times as great as foreign direct investment.
Among the other changes that encouraged large financial capital flows to Brazil was Law 4,131, which allowed final borrowers to deal directly with foreign lenders after approval by the Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil--Bacen; see Glossary). Another vehicle for capital flows was Resolution 63, which permitted Brazilian banks and authorized subsidiaries of foreign banks to obtain dollar loans abroad and reloan the proceeds to one or more domestic borrowers. Finally, the increasing participation of the Brazilian government as a borrower itself, backed by explicit "full faith and credit" guarantees and by the implicit assumption that taxes could be levied to pay for loans to the government, made lending to Brazil an increasingly attractive option for foreign banks.
Equally important in explaining the sharp rise in financial lending to Brazil after the mid-1960s were changes in international financial markets. International banks began to negotiate variable interest rate loans, in which the borrower and the lender agreed to reset the loan's interest rate at specified intervals, usually six months, on the basis of a rate that neither the borrower nor lender controlled (usually the London Interbank Offered Rate--LIBOR), or the United States prime rate. Added to this underlying rate was a "spread," or premium charged to borrowers like Brazil, based on the market's assessment of any additional risk compared with the risks associated with prime borrowers. Finally, the rise in syndicated bank lending, in which one "lead" bank organized the loan and then sold portions of it to other international lenders, permitted banks to expand substantially their loans to borrowers like Brazil.
Together, these innovations cleared the way for lending on a scale that was unprecedented in Brazil's history and with few parallels elsewhere in the world. Because the loans were denominated in the creditor country's currency, they were isolated effectively from inflation in cruzeiro prices. As long as the value of Brazil's export revenues grew at rates exceeding the interest rates charged on the loans, an assumption that appeared valid throughout the 1970s, the burden of the external debt in relation to Brazil's capacity to repay it would fall.
Although it is easy from the vantage point of the 1990s to criticize the volume and terms of much of the bank lending to Brazil, at the time it appeared to be an extremely attractive option for a borrower like Brazil. When inflation in the currencies of the lending countries is subtracted from the rates charged on loans to Brazil, real interest rates on these loans in the 1970s were negligible and often negative. The nominal and real interest rates in the markets in which Brazilian external borrowing occurred do not include the spread paid by Brazil, which during the 1970s and early 1980s was generally between 1 percent and 2 percent. Nevertheless, these rates do show clearly why foreign borrowing appeared to be such an attractive option for Brazil.
The debt crisis that began in Mexico in August 1982 had an almost immediate impact on the ability of other Latin American borrowers to maintain capital inflows. Even though Brazil's trade balance and current account had improved slightly in 1981, loans from international lenders became increasingly scarce. Interest on new loans increased, and most lenders refused to roll over on existing loans. New lending dried up in the second half of 1982, reducing capital inflows, which had reached a peak in 1981, by more than a third. Private borrowers in Brazil encountered a total cutoff of loans from foreign lenders, while official borrowing dropped sharply. By 1984 net capital inflows (public and private) were negligible by comparison with earlier years, and by 1986 the country was experiencing a net capital outflow of US$7.3 billion, a sum nearly equal to Brazil's trade balance. The principal components of Brazil's balance of payments show this sharp drop in the net inflow of foreign capital after 1982.
The 1982 crisis interrupted for many years private Brazilian external borrowing. Private loans contracted under Law 4,131 had leveled off in the late 1970s, and after 1982 net private borrowing under this law became negative. The fall in private borrowing under Resolution 63 was even more pronounced. After a rapid rise in such borrowing between 1979 and the 1982 debt crisis, this source of financing virtually collapsed, as the level of outstanding Resolution 63 debt was more than cut in half between 1982 and the end of 1987.
Part, if not all, of the increase in external debt reported by the Central Bank after 1982 was simply forced lending to finance interest payments. It did not have a real counterpart in the form of new resources entering the country through the capital account. As a result, Brazil's ability to tap external saving to finance either public-sector borrowing or private-sector investment collapsed after 1982.
A number of Brazilian economists have made the point that before 1982 net capital inflows more than covered service payments (net interest, profits and dividends, and reinvested profits). After 1982 interest payments alone far exceeded net capital inflows, which turned negative after 1985. Although 1982 is usually viewed as the turning point, the net capital transfer from the rest of the world actually began to decline in the mid-1970s. Brazil was only able to avoid an external payments crisis in the late 1970s because lenders were willing to finance debt service through further lending. After the Mexican debt crisis in 1982, Brazil's own crisis could no longer be postponed.
The 1986 Cruzado Plan exacerbated capital outflows. Real exchange-rate overvaluation, with increasing expectations of a future adjustment, was one factor. A second factor was the increase in uncertainty about future fiscal and monetary policy, as the shortages and informal markets produced by the price controls undercut the euphoria of the first few months.
During the rest of the 1980s, net capital outflow continued, further reducing Brazil's capacity to finance investments needed for future economic growth. In real terms, however, the external debt began to decline in the late 1980s, both as a result of debt renegotiation and a marking down of some of the debt by public and private lenders. Despite temporary interruptions in debt servicing, domestic political pressures in Brazil for a permanent repudiation of the external debt were rejected. As interest rates in international financial markets declined substantially in the early 1990s, the costs of servicing the remaining external debt were reduced further.
Although the debt crisis that exploded in Brazil in the early 1980s had not disappeared a decade later, it was no longer regarded as Brazil's central economic problem. Its effects, however, lingered on in several forms. First, the steep fall in the availability of international reserves after 1982 sharply curtailed Brazilian investment. The resulting decline in capital formation was evident a decade later, as Brazilians faced the consequence of lower levels of investment in plant, equipment, and essential infrastructure. Second, international confidence in the financial soundness of external lending to Brazil remained low. When foreign capital began to return to Brazil in the early 1990s, it took a rather different form from the capital inflows of the 1970s. Foreign capital inflows to Brazil in the early 1990s were smaller and were no longer dominated by loans from international banks. Instead, foreign lenders sought equity investments in Brazilian enterprises. Foreign firms with the capacity to manage direct investments in Brazil began to replace commercial banks as the primary source of foreign capital.

Foreign Relations

The Foreign Service

Chart of foreign business of Brazil

 

The Rio Branco Institute (Instituto Rio Branco--IRBr) recruits from twenty to thirty candidates each year among college graduates. After four semesters of intensive study of language and diplomacy, graduates receive a certified bachelor of arts degree in diplomacy and begin their careers as third secretaries. In 1996 the IRBr began studies to upgrade the course to an M.A. program. The IRBr teaching staff is composed of senior diplomats and some academics from the University of Brasília (Universidade de Brasília). Some foreign students are admitted, mostly from Latin America and Africa.
After three or four years experience within several divisions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (known as Itamaraty, after the building it formerly occupied in Rio de Janeiro), the junior diplomat is posted overseas. Promotion to second and first secretary is by merit (evaluation by immediate superiors). Before promotion to minister second class, the diplomat goes through a mid-career course and produces a monograph, which is defended before an examining board. Many diplomats also acquire graduate degrees during their career. Promotion to the final positions of counselor (minister first class) and ambassador involves a combination of merit and political considerations; the president makes the final decision. Because Itamaraty has more diplomats than posts overseas and in Brasília, diplomats frequently fill key positions in other ministries, state enterprises, and the president's office. Brazilian diplomats generally are considered skilled and patient negotiators by their peers.